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中國在尚未完成工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化之前，就已經(jīng)迎來了數(shù)字化，反映了與發(fā)達(dá)國家不同的發(fā)展邏輯。中國數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速發(fā)展，既得益于政府的前瞻性政策，也得益于本土企業(yè)探索出的創(chuàng)新型商業(yè)模式。但同發(fā)達(dá)國家相比，中國傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型進(jìn)程仍相對滯后?？缃鐢?shù)字人才的引進(jìn)和培養(yǎng)，是未來中國數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型的重點。

28日，《中國日報》海外版刊發(fā)清華經(jīng)管學(xué)院市場營銷系教授、清華經(jīng)管學(xué)院黨委書記兼副院長陳煜波文章Future of China's digital economy。該文同步發(fā)表于中國日報英文網(wǎng)、中文網(wǎng)、觀中國公眾號、學(xué)習(xí)強國號；清華大學(xué)官方臉書、推特、領(lǐng)英等平臺。

Future of China's digital economy

China needs to nurture and attract skilled digital talent to promote its digital transformationIn recent years, a new generation of digital technologies, such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, the internet of things and 5G, has developed rapidly. The digital economy has become a critical driving force for global economic and social development.

It has gained even more momentum thanks to the prominent role of digital technologies in the prevention and control of the novel coronavirus and resumption of economic activities during the pandemic.According to a report released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, China's digital economy was valued at 35.8 trillion yuan ($5.5 trillion) in 2019, which was second only to the United States worldwide, accounting for 36.2 percent of China's GDP and contributing 67.7 percent to its GDP growth.

The report also noted that the digital economy accounted for 51.3 percent of GDP in developed countries in 2019, while the number was only 26.8 percent in developing countries. This illustrates that China's digital economy boom is different from that of the developed countries as China embraced digitization before completing industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization.China's booming digital economy can be primarily attributed to a number of forward-looking policies for digital infrastructure development by the government.

According to official data, the number of internet users in China was 940 million by the first half of 2020 and the country had an internet penetration rate of 67 percent, 749 million online shoppers, and 805 million online payment users. Fast and affordable internet access has translated China's demographic dividend and huge market into the data dividend and thus a boon for the digital economy. China has probably the most abundant data resources in the world, which has laid a solid foundation for its flourishing digital economy.Another key reason for China's digital growth spurt is that many Chinese technology companies have explored innovative digital models tailored to the local market environment. In the past 20 years, Chinese internet companies such as Alibaba and JD.com Inc have launched unique business models such as Alipay and JD Logistics that are tailored to China's market environment and have solved the trust-related problems in the market and business environment that would otherwise take a long process of industrialization to overcome.

These business models have not only driven concurrent digitization and industrialization in China, but also represent the secret recipe for their competitiveness in emerging markets over internet giants from industrialized economies in the West.Based on a deep understanding of emerging market environment, Chinese companies have introduced business models that suit China's market and the markets of other developing economies, which has also paved the way for the new dual circulation development paradigm with the domestic circulation as the mainstay and the domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other.China's digital transformation now is expanding from the demand side to the supply side, from marketing to the upstream of the industrial chain, such as logistics, manufacturing and research and development.

While digital transformation on the demand and consumer side mainly depends on the data dividend generated by a large number of internet users, a digital shift on the supply side relies more on industry-savvy and digital-literate talent who can collect, integrate, analyze and apply data both upstream and downstream. Digital talent is the most important resource and key driving force for the digital transformation of China's economy in the next stage.In 2020, we analyzed nearly 40 million digital talents among all LinkedIn users in 31 cities worldwide, and found that the proportion of digital talents in the ICT sector in China is higher than that in Europe and the US, while the percentage of digital talent in traditional industries in Western countries is higher than that in China.In addition, we found that most China's digital talents only have digital skills, while their counterparts in the West also have industry and business skills and experience.

China's digital talent therefore has obvious shortcomings.These findings show that compared with developed countries, China still lags behind in digitalizing traditional industries. China needs to nurture or find interdisciplinary talent with digital literacy and management skills in industries and other fields of the value chain to facilitate its digital transformation.Digital technologies are driving a new round of scientific and technological revolution together with industrial transformation. For example, big data and AI are disrupting life science and genetic engineering, as shown by the rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines. We found that China also lags behind the developed countries in disruptive digital skills to push the scientific boundaries.As talent is the most important resource, digital talent is the foundation underpinning the future of the digital economy.

To better tap the digital talent dividend and make up for its talent shortage, China needs to drive supply-side reforms of its labor market and education with digital skills and education that is tailored to industry needs and scientific breakthroughs. With an emphasis on the integration of digital technologies with other scientific and engineering fields, China should nurture more cutting-edge digital talent with disruptive digital skills to expedite its digital transformation.The author is a professor at the School of Economics and Management and director of the Center for Internet Development and Governance at Tsinghua University. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

近年來，以大數(shù)據(jù)、云計算、人工智能、物聯(lián)網(wǎng)和5G通信技術(shù)為代表的新一代數(shù)字技術(shù)迅猛發(fā)展，數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)已成為引領(lǐng)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會變革的重要驅(qū)動力。新冠肺炎疫情期間，數(shù)字技術(shù)在疫情防控和復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)中的突出表現(xiàn)，進(jìn)一步加速了數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。中國信息通信研究院發(fā)布報告顯示，2019年，中國數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模已達(dá)到35.8萬億元，僅次于美國位居全球第二，數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)占GDP比例為36.2%，對GDP增長的貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)67.7%。

中國數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)蓬勃發(fā)展的背后，有著與西方發(fā)達(dá)國家不同的發(fā)展邏輯，其根本原因在于：中國在尚未完成工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化之前，就已經(jīng)迎來了數(shù)字化。根據(jù)中國信息通信研究院報告，2019年發(fā)達(dá)國家數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)占GDP比重達(dá)51.3%，而發(fā)展中國家僅為26.8%。發(fā)展中國家發(fā)展數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的主要挑戰(zhàn)是，它們必須在數(shù)字化的同時兼顧工業(yè)化進(jìn)程。然而，“四化同步”的市場環(huán)境也為新興市場國家提供了一個歷史性機遇，它們可以利用適合自身發(fā)展環(huán)境的數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式，在二三十年內(nèi)迅速完成發(fā)達(dá)國家一到兩個世紀(jì)的工業(yè)化進(jìn)程。

關(guān)鍵動力中國數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)能夠迅速發(fā)展，首先得益于中國政府推出了一系列前瞻性的數(shù)字基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)政策，比如“寬帶中國”戰(zhàn)略、3G/4G網(wǎng)絡(luò)建設(shè)、提速降費等，成功地將中國的人口紅利和超大市場規(guī)模優(yōu)勢轉(zhuǎn)化為數(shù)據(jù)紅利。官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，到2020年上半年，中國網(wǎng)民規(guī)模達(dá)9.4億，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)普及率達(dá)67%，網(wǎng)絡(luò)購物用戶規(guī)模達(dá)7.49億，網(wǎng)絡(luò)支付用戶規(guī)模達(dá)8.05億。

中國已成為世界上最大的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)市場和數(shù)據(jù)資源國家，這為中國數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)的蓬勃發(fā)展打下了堅實的基礎(chǔ)。中國數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速發(fā)展的另一個關(guān)鍵原因，是中國大量本土企業(yè)探索出了一系列創(chuàng)新性的、適合于新興市場的數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)商業(yè)模式。過去20年，阿里巴巴、京東等本土互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)，根據(jù)中國獨特的市場環(huán)境，推出了支付寶、京東自營物流等獨特的商業(yè)模式，成功地利用數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)手段解決了需要長時間工業(yè)化進(jìn)程才能解決的市場信任和營商環(huán)境問題。

這些適應(yīng)“四化同步”市場環(huán)境的商業(yè)模式，既極大地促進(jìn)了中國數(shù)字化和工業(yè)化的同步進(jìn)程，也是這些企業(yè)在中國以及東南亞和其他新興市場，能夠在同西方發(fā)達(dá)國家互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭競爭中脫穎而出的根本原因。過去二三十年，中國政府和企業(yè)基于對自身發(fā)展環(huán)境的深刻理解，推出了適合新興市場發(fā)展環(huán)境的政策和商業(yè)模式，也為下一階段中國建立以國內(nèi)大循環(huán)為主體、國內(nèi)國際雙循環(huán)相互促進(jìn)的新發(fā)展格局奠定了堅實基礎(chǔ)。人才缺口中國數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型正逐漸從需求側(cè)向供給側(cè)，從市場營銷向物流、制造、研發(fā)等產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上游滲透。如果說需求側(cè)、消費端的數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型主要依靠海量用戶帶來的數(shù)據(jù)紅利，那么供給側(cè)、產(chǎn)業(yè)端的數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型則更加依賴既懂行業(yè)又有數(shù)字化素養(yǎng)的數(shù)字人才，對產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上下游數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行采集、整合、分析與應(yīng)用。

數(shù)字人才成為下一階段中國經(jīng)濟(jì)全面數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型的第一資源和核心驅(qū)動力。2020年我們對全球31個重要創(chuàng)新城市（地區(qū)）所有領(lǐng)英用戶中近4000萬數(shù)字人才展開分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)中國數(shù)字人才在信息與通信技術(shù) (ICT) 行業(yè)比例高于歐美發(fā)達(dá)國家，而歐美發(fā)達(dá)國家的數(shù)字人才在傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)比例高于中國。另外，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)中國數(shù)字人才的主要技能集中在數(shù)字技能方面，而歐美發(fā)達(dá)國家的數(shù)字人才除了擁有數(shù)字技能外還擁有豐富的行業(yè)技能和商業(yè)技能，比如醫(yī)療管理、房地產(chǎn)、建筑工程、制藥、教育管理等。

這些發(fā)現(xiàn)表明，與西方發(fā)達(dá)國家相比，中國傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型進(jìn)程還相對滯后，既有數(shù)字化素養(yǎng)又有豐富的行業(yè)和價值鏈其他領(lǐng)域管理技能的跨界人才，是下一階段中國數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型需要重點引進(jìn)和培養(yǎng)的人才。產(chǎn)教融合當(dāng)前數(shù)字技術(shù)的發(fā)展除了深層次驅(qū)動產(chǎn)業(yè)變革外，也正在推動新一代科技革命。比如大數(shù)據(jù)、人工智能等數(shù)字技術(shù)正給生命科學(xué)和基因工程帶來顛覆性的影響，這次新冠肺炎疫情中，無論是病毒檢測還是疫苗研發(fā)，都充分說明了這點。人才是第一資源，數(shù)字人才是支撐數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)。為了更好地挖掘中國數(shù)字人才紅利，彌補數(shù)字人才短板，下一階段需要以數(shù)字技能為抓手，推動勞動力市場和教育的供給側(cè)改革，大力加強產(chǎn)教融合。要高度重視數(shù)字技術(shù)與其他科學(xué)與工程領(lǐng)域的融合，培養(yǎng)更多具有顛覆性數(shù)字技能的前沿型數(shù)字人才，加速中國科學(xué)研究和工程技術(shù)領(lǐng)域的數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型，有力推動中國科技創(chuàng)新。

教授簡介

陳煜波

清華經(jīng)管學(xué)院市場營銷系教授

清華經(jīng)管學(xué)院黨委書記兼副院長

清華大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院黨委書記兼副院長、教授、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)發(fā)展與治理研究中心主任，國家杰出青年科學(xué)基金獲得者、國家"萬人計劃"青年拔尖人才。美國佛羅里達(dá)大學(xué)管理學(xué)博士，東南大學(xué)系統(tǒng)工程碩士、工業(yè)管理工程學(xué)士。加入清華大學(xué)前曾任美國亞利桑那大學(xué)艾勒管理學(xué)院副教授、終身教職。

主要研究領(lǐng)域為：數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型，大數(shù)據(jù)與全球互聯(lián)時代的商業(yè)創(chuàng)新，氣候變化與可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。作為國際上最早研究社會化互聯(lián)網(wǎng)（Web 2.0)的管理學(xué)學(xué)者之一，在

目前兼任教育部高等學(xué)校工商管理類專業(yè)教學(xué)指導(dǎo)會委員、中國信息化百人會成員、中國數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)百人會專家委員會副主任、全國質(zhì)量管理和質(zhì)量保證標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化技術(shù)委員會委員、中國管理現(xiàn)代化研究會青年工作委員會共同主任、管理與決策科學(xué)專家委員會副主任、管理科學(xué)與工程學(xué)會大數(shù)據(jù)與商務(wù)分析研究會副理事長、以及《營銷科學(xué)學(xué)報》主編。

曾先后獲得美國亞利桑那大學(xué)管理學(xué)院院長優(yōu)秀教學(xué)獎、院長課程創(chuàng)新獎、亞利桑那大學(xué)學(xué)生校友會授予的杰出高等教育工作者、清華大學(xué)教學(xué)成果一等獎、清華大學(xué)優(yōu)秀博士論文指導(dǎo)教師、清華大學(xué)優(yōu)秀碩士論文指導(dǎo)教師、清華經(jīng)管學(xué)院優(yōu)秀教學(xué)二等獎、EMBA和高管教育教學(xué)優(yōu)秀獎等多個優(yōu)秀教學(xué)獎項。曾受邀為中組部司局級干部培訓(xùn)班、國務(wù)院國資委董事會試點中央企業(yè)董事培訓(xùn)班、國家行政學(xué)院國有重要骨干企業(yè)中高級管理人員培訓(xùn)班、交通部、清華-中歐-哈佛高級經(jīng)理人課程、中國移動、中國工商銀行、中國平安、招商銀行、中國化工、華僑城、寶馬、阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)、陽光保險、中信銀行、百度、蘇寧云商、京東集團(tuán)等講授大數(shù)據(jù)與全球互聯(lián)時代的市場變革與商業(yè)創(chuàng)新、數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)與中國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型等課程或進(jìn)行研究合作與戰(zhàn)略咨詢。