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【MBAChina網(wǎng)訊】近日，北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院2014級博士生俞秀梅與雷曉燕、王敏兩位老師合作撰寫的論文“Temperature Effects on Mortality and Household Adaptation: Evidence from China”被環(huán)境與資源經(jīng)濟學(xué)領(lǐng)域頂級期刊Journal of Environmental Economics and Management（JEEM）接受。

論文簡介

This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Earth System climate change predictions shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur.

期刊介紹

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management是由Elsevier出版社出版，致力于發(fā)表和環(huán)境與資源經(jīng)濟學(xué)相關(guān)的理論與實證文章，為SSCI來源期刊，是環(huán)境與資源經(jīng)濟學(xué)領(lǐng)域公認的頂級期刊。

作者簡介

俞秀梅，北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院2014級博士研究生

俞秀梅， 北京大學(xué)元培學(xué)院經(jīng)濟學(xué)學(xué)士（2014），北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院2019屆經(jīng)濟學(xué)預(yù)畢業(yè)博士生，導(dǎo)師為王敏老師與雷曉燕老師，研究領(lǐng)域包括健康經(jīng)濟學(xué)與環(huán)境經(jīng)濟學(xué)。

雷曉燕，北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授

雷曉燕，北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院經(jīng)濟學(xué)教授；北京大學(xué)健康老齡與發(fā)展研究中心主任，教育部-北京大學(xué)人力資本與國家政策研究中心副主任；經(jīng)濟學(xué)（季刊）副主編。2007年獲美國加利福尼亞大學(xué)洛杉磯校區(qū)經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士學(xué)位，主要研究興趣包括勞動經(jīng)濟學(xué)，健康經(jīng)濟學(xué)，應(yīng)用計量學(xué)等領(lǐng)域，數(shù)十篇學(xué)術(shù)研究成果已經(jīng)在國際頂級期刊如Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Journal of Human Resources和國內(nèi)頂級期刊如《經(jīng)濟研究》、《經(jīng)濟學(xué)（季刊）》等發(fā)表。

王敏，北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院長聘副教授

王敏， 北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院長聘副教授，《經(jīng)濟學(xué)（季刊）》副主編，北京大學(xué)環(huán)境與能源經(jīng)濟學(xué)研究中心副主任，EfD中國項目主任。2011年獲美國愛荷華州立大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士學(xué)位，主要研究領(lǐng)域包括環(huán)境與資源經(jīng)濟學(xué)、能源經(jīng)濟學(xué)、氣候變化和宏觀發(fā)展。在Economic Theory, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,《經(jīng)濟學(xué)（季刊）》，《經(jīng)濟研究》，《管理世界》，《世界經(jīng)濟》等中英文經(jīng)濟學(xué)權(quán)威學(xué)術(shù)刊物上發(fā)表論文近20篇。主持國家自然科學(xué)基金項目、世界銀行資助項目和國家高端智庫資助項目多項。